Equipo ViaParaguay
Paraguay's economy grew 5.7% in the first half of 2026, according to the Quarterly National Accounts Report of the Central Bank of Paraguay (BCP), published on September 25. In the comparison with six other countries in the region compiled by the BCP itself, it is the highest cumulative growth for the half-year. The figure comes with nuances worth reading in full: growth eased from the first to the second quarter, investment fell, and net exports made a larger contribution.
What the BCP Reported
Cumulative GDP for the half-year rose 5.7%. The first quarter had grown 7.3% and the second grew at a year-on-year pace of 4.0%.
The BCP also publishes an indicator that excludes agriculture and binational entities. The binationals are the hydroelectric plants Paraguay shares with its neighbors: Itaipú, with Brazil, and Yacyretá, with Argentina. This version of the indicator is watched because it removes two highly variable components from the calculation, one that depends on the weather (harvests) and one on hydrology (how much water is available to generate electricity). On that basis, the economy grew 5.2% in the half-year and 3.2% year on year in the second quarter.
Where the Growth Came From
On the supply side, the biggest boost came from agriculture, which grew 12.3% in the half-year and 11.1% in the second quarter, with more soybeans, rice, beans, sunflower and tobacco and less corn, cotton, sesame and yerba mate. Electricity and water, which include the binationals, grew 8.5% in the half-year and 13.0% in the second quarter; the BCP attributes this to greater hydroelectric generation at Itaipú and Yacyretá and more distribution to electricity-intensive industries.
Services advanced 5.7% in the half-year and 3.4% in the second quarter, with contributions from financial intermediation, government services, telecommunications, information, crypto-mining services, hotels, restaurants and trade. Construction grew 4.9% and 4.2%, respectively, on private works; cement output rose 14.5% and rebar output, 9.7%. Manufacturing grew 4.0% in the half-year, with soybean crushing up 15.5% year on year in the second quarter and more dairy, beverage and pharmaceutical output.
The block in decline was livestock, forestry, fishing and mining, at −0.9% in the half-year and −4.1% in the second quarter. The BCP links this to the rebuilding of the cattle herd, with cattle slaughter down 26.6%.
Spending and Investment: The Nuance in the Data
On the spending side, total consumption grew 4.3% in the half-year (private 4.2%, government 4.6%), and private consumption advanced 3.2% year on year in the second quarter. Even so, domestic demand fell 2.6% year on year in that quarter.
Gross fixed capital formation — investment — fell 11.8% year on year in the second quarter and 3.9% in the half-year. The BCP explains this by one-off factors: imports of crypto-mining machines dropped 94.6%, and an earlier purchase of military aircraft inflates the comparison base. Without those components, according to the BCP, investment would have grown 6.3% year on year in the second quarter. The decline was cushioned by investment in construction and in agricultural, forestry and industrial machinery.
Foreign trade pushed in the opposite direction. Exports of goods and services grew 8.2% in the half-year and 11.5% in the second quarter, with the exported volume of soybeans rising 51.6% (on the soy complex, see our report on its exports). Imports fell 1.4% in the half-year and 5.7% in the second quarter, with fuels at −13.1% and less heavy machinery. The result was a larger contribution from net exports to growth.
Regional Comparison
The BCP compiled growth figures for seven economies in the region. Paraguay leads the cumulative first-half figure. In the second quarter on a year-on-year basis it also leads, although Colombia, at 3.5%, is close behind.
| Country | Cumulative first half 2026 (%) | Year on year, Q2 2026 (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Paraguay | 5.7 | 4.0 |
| Peru | 3.0 | 2.6 |
| Colombia | 2.9 | 3.5 |
| Argentina | 2.2 | 2.0 |
| Brazil | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| Uruguay | 0.3 | −0.5 |
| Chile | −0.3 | −0.2 |
Source: regional comparison compiled by the Central Bank of Paraguay (BCP).
Outside that comparison, Panama reported 5.5% growth for the same half-year, according to its National Institute of Statistics and Census (INEC).
What to Expect for the Rest of the Year
The BCP forecasts growth of 4.5% for the full year 2026, an estimate in force when the figure was published and therefore subject to revision. The World Bank had estimated 4.4% in June. Both numbers are projections, not results.
What It Means for Those Investing in Paraguay
The data came days after President Santiago Peña led the Paraguay Investment Forum in New York, with sessions at Bank of America and J.P. Morgan before more than 150 international investors, according to the EFE news agency.
For the foreign investor, the reading is twofold. On one hand, Paraguay combines cumulative growth that tops the BCP's regional comparison with private consumption that keeps advancing. On the other, domestic demand fell in the second quarter and fixed investment showed a decline in the quarter that the BCP attributes to one-off factors. For more context, see our reporting on the record foreign investment of 2025 and on the long-term growth path of the so-called "economic jaguar". Those evaluating investment, trade or business setup opportunities in Paraguay can consult the ViaParaguay team through the contact form.